Polissya II v SK Poltava prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Polissya II 1–2 SK Poltava SK POLTAVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SK Poltava win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SK Poltava win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: SK Poltava was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 26–23–51
1′KICK-OFF Polissya II v SK Poltava
38′Polissya II find the net on 38′. 1–0. 1–0 · 57–25–18
38′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 57–25–18
38′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 57–25–18
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Polissya II 1–0 SK Poltava
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Polissya II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was SK Poltava win 43%)
45′HALF-TIME Polissya II 1–0 SK Poltava
46′SECOND HALF Polissya II 1–0 SK Poltava
49′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
61′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
62′A goal for SK Poltava on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–47–33
62′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 20–47–33
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Polissya II 1–1 SK Poltava
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 33% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Polissya II win 66%)
68′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 18–53–29
74′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 15–61–24
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
92′We said SK Poltava at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
95′SK Poltava score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′We published SK Poltava at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Polissya II 1–2 SK Poltava
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' SK Poltava win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' SK Poltava win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Polissya II 1–2 SK Poltava
FTPolissya II 1–2 SK Poltava · SK Poltava win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SK Poltava are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Polissya II 26%, draw 23%, SK Poltava 51%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Polissya II v SK PoltavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Polissya II win26%

Draw23%

SK Poltava win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueTsentralnyi Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Polissya II

SK Poltava

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Persha Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sk poltava winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make SK Poltava a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Polissya II v SK Poltava~~1.30 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 21~~16 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Polissya II win	26%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SK Poltava win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Polissya II or draw	49%	–	–
Polissya II clean sheet	16%	–	–
SK Poltava clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 7.4 7.3 4.6 2.3 1 5.0 10.4 9.1 5.7 2.8 2 3.6 6.4 5.8 3.7 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Polissya II down, SK Poltava across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Persha Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Polissya II at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). SK Poltava away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Polissya II, 1.90 for SK Poltava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 12 Sept

POLISSYA II

WLLDLD3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 2–4 · 1–1

SK POLTAVA

LWLWLW1–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
4	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
5	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8