Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Oleksandria 2–0 Probiy Horodenka OLEKSANDRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oleksandria win~~61%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.233

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oleksandria win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Oleksandria 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
1′KICK-OFF Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka
29′Oleksandria find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Oleksandria 1–0 Probiy Horodenka
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Oleksandria win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
30′We said Oleksandria at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
35′Oleksandria ahead on 39′ through M. Tretyakov. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Oleksandria
45′HALF-TIME Oleksandria 1–0 Probiy Horodenka
46′SECOND HALF Oleksandria 1–0 Probiy Horodenka
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Probiy Horodenka · On: B. Drygan · Off: A. Bliznichenko
54′We said Oleksandria at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
60′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Probiy Horodenka · On: S. Yaroshenko · Off: V. Radulskyi
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Probiy Horodenka
74′We said Oleksandria at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Oleksandria
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Probiy Horodenka
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Oleksandria win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Probiy Horodenka
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Oleksandria
84′We said Oleksandria at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′A goal for Oleksandria on 87′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′We said Oleksandria at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Oleksandria 2–0 Probiy Horodenka
90′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Probiy Horodenka · On: K. Matveev · Off: R. Kharuk
91′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Probiy Horodenka · On: D. Goncharuk · Off: M. Girnyi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oleksandria · On: O. Kozak · Off: Jhonnatan
93′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Oleksandria · On: O. Prytula · Off: A. Storchous
FTFULL TIME Oleksandria 2–0 Probiy Horodenka
FTOleksandria 2–0 Probiy Horodenka · Oleksandria win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oleksandria are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oleksandria 61%, draw 23%, Probiy Horodenka 16%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Oleksandria v Probiy HorodenkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Oleksandria win61%

Draw23%

Probiy Horodenka win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oleksandria

Probiy Horodenka

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oleksandria winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

61% The market69%

Us61%

~~Market~~69%

We make Oleksandria a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka~~1.91 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 9~~6 v 15

~~The market · Oleksandria win~~69% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Oleksandria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oleksandria win	61%	69%	−8
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Probiy Horodenka win	16%	12%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	47%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Oleksandria or draw	84%	88%	−4
Oleksandria clean sheet	42%	–	–
Probiy Horodenka clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 7.2 5.1 2.5 1 11.5 10.7 4.4 2 11.1 9.4 4.1 3 7.1 6.0 2.6 4 3.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oleksandria down, Probiy Horodenka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Persha Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oleksandria at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Probiy Horodenka away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Oleksandria, 0.87 for Probiy Horodenka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PRO 1–1 OLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 13 Sept

OLEKSANDRIA

WLDWLD1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

PROBIY HORODENKA

LLLWWD0–2 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
2	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
4	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
5	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8