Oleksandria v Lokomotiv Kyiv prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Oleksandria 1–3 Lokomotiv Kyiv OLEKSANDRIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oleksandria win~~49%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oleksandria win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Oleksandria v Lokomotiv Kyiv
2′Little has changed for our model: Oleksandria 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–24
7′Little has changed for our model: Oleksandria 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–24
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Lokomotiv Kyiv
16′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Lokomotiv Kyiv
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Oleksandria
24′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Lokomotiv Kyiv · On: D. Romanenko · Off: T. Titarenko
45′HALF-TIME Oleksandria 0–0 Lokomotiv Kyiv
46′SECOND HALF Oleksandria 0–0 Lokomotiv Kyiv
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Oleksandria 0–1 Lokomotiv Kyiv
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Oleksandria 0–2 Lokomotiv Kyiv
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Oleksandria 1–2 Lokomotiv Kyiv
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Oleksandria 1–3 Lokomotiv Kyiv
FTFULL TIME Oleksandria 1–3 Lokomotiv Kyiv
FTOleksandria 1–3 Lokomotiv Kyiv · Oleksandria win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Oleksandria win49%

Draw27%

Lokomotiv Kyiv win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Line-ups

Oleksandria

Lokomotiv Kyiv

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Oleksandria

Lokomotiv Kyiv

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Oleksandria

Formation not confirmed

33 A. Klishchuk

2 T. Dmytruk

94 O. Melnyk

5 O. Dykhtyaruk

25 O. Kozak

21 R. Tolochko

30 Y. Kopyna

9 M. Tretyakov

10 S. Buletsa

44 Jhonnatan

14 R. Kuzmyn

Coach · Volodymyr Sharan

Substitutes

1 · V. Dolgyi

61 · M. Stovba

4 · N. Gavrylyuk

90 · D. Vlasyuk

16 · O. Prytula

22 · D. Skorko

35 · G. Danylo

40 · D. Chernysh

70 · D. Slyusar

79 · D. Khmelovskyy

77 · D. Kremchanin

8 · A. Storchous

Lokomotiv Kyiv

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Lyopka

19 R. Tkachenko

5 M. Syrash

3 R. Savchenko

44 T. Titarenko

11 O. Sakhnenko

90 P. Savchuk

20 V. Churko

17 A. Golovatenko

34 D. Nagnoynyi

27 V. Tymenko

Coach · Sergiy Karpenko

Substitutes

71 · M. Karpenko

99 · Y. Yarmak

16 · I. Zasovitskyi

6 · A. Sabalayev

10 · D. Golub

47 · I. Pushkutsa

77 · O. Savchuk

14 · S. Ikenna

9 · B. Manuilov

32 · D. Romanenko

7 · B. Mordas

Our number · oleksandria winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

49% The market62%

Us49%

~~Market~~62%

We make Oleksandria a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oleksandria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oleksandria win	49%	62%	−13
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Lokomotiv Kyiv win	24%	15%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
Oleksandria or draw	76%	85%	−8
Oleksandria clean sheet	40%	–	–
Lokomotiv Kyiv clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 10.1 8.0 4.0 1 12.8 12.5 5.6 2 9.7 8.7 4.0 3 4.8 4.3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oleksandria down, Lokomotiv Kyiv across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Persha Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Oleksandria at home: 1.40 scored, 0.40 conceded a game (last 5). Lokomotiv Kyiv away: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Oleksandria, 0.93 for Lokomotiv Kyiv. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Persha Liga

OLEKSANDRIA

WDWLDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

LOKOMOTIV KYIV

LLWWWD1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
3	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
4	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
5	Kulykiv	10	+9	17
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
8	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
9	Inhulets	10	−2	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11
13	UCSA	10	−3	10
14	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
15	Chernihiv	9	−4	7
16	Polissya II	10	−6	7