Nyva Ternopil v Kolos Kovalivka II prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Nyva Ternopil 3–1 Kolos Kovalivka II NYVA TERNOPIL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nyva Ternopil win~~44%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.344

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyva Ternopil win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nyva Ternopil was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Nyva Ternopil win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Draw 34%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nyva Ternopil win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nyva Ternopil win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Nyva Ternopil win 34%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Nyva Ternopil win: 44% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Nyva Ternopil 0–0 Kolos Kovalivka II
46′SECOND HALF Nyva Ternopil 0–0 Kolos Kovalivka II
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Nyva Ternopil win 35%)
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Nyva Ternopil 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka II
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Nyva Ternopil 2–0 Kolos Kovalivka II
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Kolos Kovalivka II
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Nyva Ternopil 2–1 Kolos Kovalivka II
90′⚽ GOAL · 104' Nyva Ternopil 3–1 Kolos Kovalivka II
FTFULL TIME Nyva Ternopil 3–1 Kolos Kovalivka II
FTNyva Ternopil 3–1 Kolos Kovalivka II · Nyva Ternopil win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nyva Ternopil win44%

Draw30%

Kolos Kovalivka II win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueTernopilsky Misky Stadion

Line-ups

Nyva Ternopil

Kolos Kovalivka II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nyva Ternopil

Kolos Kovalivka II

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nyva Ternopil

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Mekhaniv

99 B. Vyshynskyi

75 I. Snurnitsyn

94 V. Burtnyk

11 M. Mykhalchuk

28 A. Gabelok

44 S. Davydov

91 D. Rezepov

17 M. Pezhynskyi

33 M. Mysyk

45 A. Boryachuk

Coach · Ivan Fedyk

Substitutes

23 · V. Sharun

26 · M. Bakus

4 · A. Demydenko

38 · D. Paruta

35 · A. Demyanchuk

47 · V. Mendruk

53 · D. Pokas

70 · A. Dudik

19 · V. Bugaj

77 · N. Kasarda

22 · M. Ugrynyuk

Kolos Kovalivka II

Formation not confirmed

28 S. Pogorilyi

19 Y. Misyura

13 V. Kanayev

12 O. Malaki

3 B. Sokol

6 D. Andryushchenko

11 V. Lyubko

45 I. Melnychenko

10 D. Khrul

14 D. Dymnych

9 R. Taranukha

Coach · Artem Stargorodsky

Substitutes

31 · D. Mikheev

91 · V. Prorokov

4 · S. Basov

8 · Y. Bazaev

20 · P. Kharzhevskyi

54 · M. Vasylets

80 · M. Kazakov

7 · S. Shevchuk

33 · M. Stargorodskyi

22 · D. Kolesnyk

Our number · nyva ternopil winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

44% The market52%

Us44%

~~Market~~52%

We make Nyva Ternopil a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nyva ternopil win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nyva Ternopil win	44%	52%	−9
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Kolos Kovalivka II win	27%	21%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Nyva Ternopil or draw	73%	79%	−6
Nyva Ternopil clean sheet	40%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 12.1 9.8 4.8 1 13.5 13.2 5.9 2 8.8 8.0 3.7 3 3.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nyva Ternopil down, Kolos Kovalivka II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Persha Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nyva Ternopil at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kolos Kovalivka II away: 0.80 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Nyva Ternopil, 0.93 for Kolos Kovalivka II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Persha Liga

NYVA TERNOPIL

DLLWDD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

KOLOS KOVALIVKA II

LWLWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
3	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
4	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
5	Kulykiv	10	+9	17
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
8	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
9	Inhulets	10	−2	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11
13	UCSA	10	−3	10
14	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
15	Chernihiv	9	−4	7
16	Polissya II	10	−6	7