Metal Kharkiv v Yarud Mariupol' prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 13:31

Metal Kharkiv 0–2 Yarud Mariupol' METAL KHARKIV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metal Kharkiv win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.524

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metal Kharkiv win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Metal Kharkiv v Yarud Mariupol'
2′Little has changed for our model: Metal Kharkiv 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Metal Kharkiv win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Metal Kharkiv 0–0 Yarud Mariupol'
46′SECOND HALF Metal Kharkiv 0–0 Yarud Mariupol'
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Metal Kharkiv win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′We said Metal Kharkiv at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–51–23
60′We said Metal Kharkiv at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Yarud Mariupol' · On: N. Grytsak · Off: Y. Gunichev
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Yarud Mariupol'
69′We said Metal Kharkiv at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Metal Kharkiv win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′We said Metal Kharkiv at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
78′A goal for Yarud Mariupol' on 78′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Metal Kharkiv 0–1 Yarud Mariupol'
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Metal Kharkiv win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Yarud Mariupol' win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 74%)
79′We said Metal Kharkiv at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Yarud Mariupol'
84′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Metal Kharkiv · On: M. Orikhovskyi · Off: D. Prykhodko
85′S. Kyslenko scores for Yarud Mariupol' on 77′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–93
85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Yarud Mariupol' · On: M. Podolyak · Off: P. Orikhovskyi
91′Yarud Mariupol' score on 90′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Metal Kharkiv 0–2 Yarud Mariupol'
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Yarud Mariupol'
FTFULL TIME Metal Kharkiv 0–2 Yarud Mariupol'
FTMetal Kharkiv 0–2 Yarud Mariupol' · Metal Kharkiv win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metal Kharkiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metal Kharkiv 38%, draw 30%, Yarud Mariupol' 32%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Metal Kharkiv v Yarud Mariupol'Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Metal Kharkiv win38%

Draw30%

Yarud Mariupol' win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueOSC Metalist

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metal Kharkiv

Yarud Mariupol'

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Yarud Mariupol'	12	+5	21
9	Metal Kharkiv	12	−1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metal kharkiv winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Metal Kharkiv a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metal Kharkiv v Yarud Mariupol'~~1.19 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 21~~9 v 5

~~The market · Metal Kharkiv win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metal Kharkiv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metal Kharkiv win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Yarud Mariupol' win	32%	41%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
Metal Kharkiv or draw	68%	59%	+9
Metal Kharkiv clean sheet	36%	–	–
Yarud Mariupol' clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.7 10.6 5.9 2.1 1 12.0 13.6 6.8 2.4 2 7.5 7.7 4.0 3 3.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metal Kharkiv down, Yarud Mariupol' across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,156 Persha Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metal Kharkiv at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Yarud Mariupol' away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Metal Kharkiv, 1.05 for Yarud Mariupol'. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MET 1–1 YAR · YAR 0–1 MET · YAR 1–3 MET · MET 5–0 YAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 12 Sept

METAL KHARKIV

LLWDDL0–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

YARUD MARIUPOL'

WWDDWW2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
3	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
4	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
5	Yarud Mariupol'	12	+5	21
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	12	−1	15
10	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8