Lokomotiv Kyiv v Nyva Ternopil prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–0 Nyva Ternopil LOKOMOTIV KYIV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv Kyiv win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Kyiv win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotiv Kyiv 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv Kyiv v Nyva Ternopil
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Lokomotiv Kyiv win 36%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Lokomotiv Kyiv win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Nyva Ternopil
45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–0 Nyva Ternopil
46′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–0 Nyva Ternopil
48′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–22
55′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
64′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Lokomotiv Kyiv win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
72′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nyva Ternopil · On: T. Galas · Off: N. Kasarda
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nyva Ternopil · On: V. Bugaj · Off: A. Boryachuk
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv Kyiv · On: B. Manuilov · Off: V. Tymenko
78′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Lokomotiv Kyiv win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Nyva Ternopil
83′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lokomotiv Kyiv · On: I. Pushkutsa · Off: S. Myakushko
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Nyva Ternopil · On: A. Demyanchuk · Off: M. Pezhynskyi
90′We said Lokomotiv Kyiv at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Lokomotiv Kyiv win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–0 Nyva Ternopil
FTLokomotiv Kyiv 0–0 Nyva Ternopil · Lokomotiv Kyiv win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Kyiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv Kyiv 44%, draw 30%, Nyva Ternopil 27%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv Kyiv v Nyva TernopilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv Kyiv win44%

Draw30%

Nyva Ternopil win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 12

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Kyiv

Nyva Ternopil

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv Kyiv

Nyva Ternopil

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Persha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Kyiv

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Lyopka

19 R. Tkachenko

5 M. Syrash

3 R. Savchenko

32 D. Romanenko

77 O. Savchuk

34 D. Nagnoynyi

20 V. Churko

90 P. Savchuk

33 S. Myakushko

27 V. Tymenko

Coach · Sergiy Karpenko

Substitutes

10 · D. Golub

71 · M. Karpenko

99 · Y. Yarmak

16 · I. Zasovitskyi

6 · A. Sabalayev

9 · B. Manuilov

14 · S. Ikenna

47 · I. Pushkutsa

Nyva Ternopil

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Mekhaniv

75 I. Snurnitsyn

94 V. Burtnyk

99 B. Vyshynskyi

11 M. Mykhalchuk

28 A. Gabelok

44 S. Davydov

91 D. Rezepov

77 N. Kasarda

17 M. Pezhynskyi

45 A. Boryachuk

Coach · Ivan Fedyk

Substitutes

26 · M. Bakus

30 · T. Galas

19 · V. Bugaj

35 · A. Demyanchuk

4 · A. Demydenko

38 · D. Paruta

70 · A. Dudik

Our number · lokomotiv kyiv winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:20 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Lokomotiv Kyiv a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotiv Kyiv v Nyva Ternopil~~1.26 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~7 v 10

~~The market · Lokomotiv Kyiv win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv Kyiv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv Kyiv win	44%	44%	0
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Nyva Ternopil win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw	73%	72%	+1
Lokomotiv Kyiv clean sheet	41%	–	–
Nyva Ternopil clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 12.3 9.9 4.8 1 13.8 13.2 5.8 2 8.9 7.9 3.6 3 3.8 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv Kyiv down, Nyva Ternopil across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,153 Persha Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nyva Ternopil away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Lokomotiv Kyiv, 0.92 for Nyva Ternopil. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

LOKOMOTIV KYIV

LWWWDW0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 3–1

NYVA TERNOPIL

LLWDDW0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
3	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
4	Yarud Mariupol'	12	+5	21
5	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
6	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Metal Kharkiv	12	−1	15
9	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7