Kolos Kovalivka II v UCSA prediction · Persha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Kolos Kovalivka II 0–0 UCSA KOLOS KOVALIVKA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolos Kovalivka II win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolos Kovalivka II win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kolos Kovalivka II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Kolos Kovalivka II v UCSA
45′HALF-TIME Kolos Kovalivka II 0–0 UCSA
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Kolos Kovalivka II win 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Kolos Kovalivka II 0–0 UCSA
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Kolos Kovalivka II win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–43–27
59′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–26
67′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Kolos Kovalivka II win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
80′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–13
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kolos Kovalivka II win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
91′We said Kolos Kovalivka II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Kolos Kovalivka II 0–0 UCSA
FTKolos Kovalivka II 0–0 UCSA · Kolos Kovalivka II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kolos Kovalivka II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolos Kovalivka II 40%, draw 25%, UCSA 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Kolos Kovalivka II v UCSABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kolos Kovalivka II win40%

Draw25%

UCSA win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueKolos Stadium

Line-ups

Kolos Kovalivka II

UCSA

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolos Kovalivka II

UCSA

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	−8	12
14	UCSA	11	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kolos Kovalivka II

Formation not confirmed

13 V. Kanayev

4 S. Basov

12 O. Malaki

20 P. Kharzhevskyi

6 D. Andryushchenko

54 M. Vasylets

45 I. Melnychenko

9 R. Taranukha

14 D. Dymnych

22 D. Kolesnyk

31 D. Mikitich

Coach · Artem Stargorodsky

Substitutes

28 · S. Pogorilyi

91 · V. Prorokov

3 · B. Sokol

11 · V. Lyubko

80 · M. Kazakov

29 · K. Prykhodko

7 · S. Shevchuk

33 · M. Stargorodskyi

10 · D. Khrul

21 · B. Rublyov

UCSA

Formation not confirmed

31 V. Yushchyshyn

6 R. Yuvkhymets

45 D. Sabiyev

35 Hiago Cena

15 O. Osman

17 O. Sklyar

49 Vitinho

28 O. Zhdanovych

20 M. Andrushchenko

73 P. Castro

22 Y. Rogach

Coach · Ribeiro Anderson

Substitutes

12 · A. Kovalyov

8 · A. Kireev

42 · D. Makhnev

11 · A. Emere

9 · O. Khoblenko

10 · Matheusinho

70 · D. Irodovskyi

7 · M. Sytnykov

71 · Ruan Santos

19 · G. Goulart

87 · V. Wojciechowski

Our number · kolos kovalivka ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Kolos Kovalivka II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolos Kovalivka II v UCSA~~1.55 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~12 v 14

~~The market · Kolos Kovalivka II win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kolos Kovalivka II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolos Kovalivka II win	40%	49%	−9
Draw	25%	26%	−1
UCSA win	35%	25%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	32%	+3
Kolos Kovalivka II or draw	65%	75%	−10
Kolos Kovalivka II clean sheet	25%	–	–
UCSA clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 7.0 5.2 2.6 1 7.6 11.3 7.7 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.9 2.9 3 3.2 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolos Kovalivka II down, UCSA across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Persha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Kolos Kovalivka II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). UCSA away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Kolos Kovalivka II, 1.45 for UCSA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

KOLOS KOVALIVKA II

WLWWLL1–0 · 0–5 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

UCSA

LWLDLL1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Kulykiv	11	+11	20
3	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	11	+4	20
4	Oleksandria	11	+6	19
5	SK Poltava	11	+8	18
6	Yarud Mariupol'	11	+2	18
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	11	+2	16
8	Prykarpattia	11	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
10	Nyva Ternopil	11	+2	14
11	Inhulets	10	−2	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	11	−8	12
13	Chernihiv	10	−3	10
14	UCSA	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	11	−18	8
16	Polissya II	11	−8	7