Inhulets v Kolos Kovalivka II prediction · Persha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

InhuletsDrawKolos Kovalivka II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Inhulets 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inhulets are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inhulets 53%, draw 25%, Kolos Kovalivka II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Inhulets v Kolos Kovalivka IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Inhulets win53%

Draw25%

Kolos Kovalivka II win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inhulets

Kolos Kovalivka II

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inhulets winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make Inhulets a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inhulets v Kolos Kovalivka II~~1.69 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~11 v 12

~~The market · Inhulets win~~53% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inhulets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inhulets win	53%	53%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Kolos Kovalivka II win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	42%	+8
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	68%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	28%	23%	+5
Inhulets or draw	78%	80%	−2
Inhulets clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kolos Kovalivka II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 8.0 6.4 3.5 1 11.1 11.8 5.5 2 9.7 9.2 4.5 3 5.5 5.2 2.6 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inhulets down, Kolos Kovalivka II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,160 Persha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Inhulets at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kolos Kovalivka II away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Inhulets, 0.99 for Kolos Kovalivka II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

INHULETS

DWWLLL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

KOLOS KOVALIVKA II

LWWLLD0–5 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	13	+7	25
2	SK Poltava	13	+13	24
3	Yarud Mariupol'	13	+7	24
4	Oleksandria	13	+8	23
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
6	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Prykarpattia	13	−2	16
9	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
10	Metal Kharkiv	13	−3	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	13	−20	9
16	Polissya II	13	−9	8