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Inhulets v Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Inhulets

0–1Full time

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Persha Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Inhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk INHULETS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inhulets win~~44%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.527

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inhulets win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inhulets was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Inhulets v Ahrobiznes Volochysk
45′⚽ GOAL · 54' Inhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
45′HALF-TIME Inhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
46′SECOND HALF Inhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
FTFULL TIME Inhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
FTInhulets 0–1 Ahrobiznes Volochysk · Inhulets win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Inhulets win44%

Draw28%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Inhulets

Formation not confirmed

24 O. Slutskyi

2 S. Malysh

5 Y. Dankovskyi

22 D. Yanyuk

4 V. Dubiley

8 A. Benedyuk

17 T. Khussin

30 D. Tuzenko

10 S. Ursolov

78 O. Yevtushenko

52 O. Zhadan

Coach · Vasyl Kobin

Substitutes

26 · D. Karlyuk

35 · D. Banyk

3 · M. Dzyubin

9 · Y. Knyazev

21 · O. Manastyrnyi

11 · Y. Profatylo

25 · V. Rozhko

91 · Y. Ryazantsev

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Formation not confirmed

71 D. Khmelovskyi

2 V. Krystin

3 A. Zin

33 D. Sydorenko

17 R. Slyva

20 A. Syomka

19 B. Kozak

8 V. Teplyi

21 V. Rudyuk

10 A. Riznyk

15 N. Nych

Coach · Oleksandr Chyzhevsky

Substitutes

12 · I. Potimkov

4 · D. Basovskyi

5 · S. Palyukh

6 · A. Sheyko

11 · V. Studenko

23 · S. Krystin

28 · O. Len

30 · I. Bezkorovaynyi

69 · O. Starikov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Inhulets

Formation not confirmed

24 O. Slutskyi

2 S. Malysh

5 Y. Dankovskyi

22 D. Yanyuk

4 V. Dubiley

8 A. Benedyuk

17 T. Khussin

30 D. Tuzenko

10 S. Ursolov

78 O. Yevtushenko

52 O. Zhadan

Coach · Vasyl Kobin

Substitutes

26 · D. Karlyuk

35 · D. Banyk

3 · M. Dzyubin

9 · Y. Knyazev

21 · O. Manastyrnyi

11 · Y. Profatylo

25 · V. Rozhko

91 · Y. Ryazantsev

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

Formation not confirmed

71 D. Khmelovskyi

2 V. Krystin

3 A. Zin

33 D. Sydorenko

17 R. Slyva

20 A. Syomka

19 B. Kozak

8 V. Teplyi

21 V. Rudyuk

10 A. Riznyk

15 N. Nych

Coach · Oleksandr Chyzhevsky

Substitutes

12 · I. Potimkov

4 · D. Basovskyi

5 · S. Palyukh

6 · A. Sheyko

11 · V. Studenko

23 · S. Krystin

28 · O. Len

30 · I. Bezkorovaynyi

69 · O. Starikov

Our number · inhulets winPublished 10 Oct 09:34

44% The market32%

Us44%

~~Market~~32%

We make Inhulets a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inhulets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inhulets win	44%	32%	+12
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win	28%	41%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−6
Inhulets or draw	72%	59%	+13
Inhulets clean sheet	35%	–	–
Ahrobiznes Volochysk clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 8.6 4.9 1 11.4 13.0 6.5 2.4 2 8.3 8.5 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inhulets down, Ahrobiznes Volochysk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,141 Persha Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inhulets at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ahrobiznes Volochysk away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Inhulets, 1.06 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AHR 1–0 INH · INH 3–2 AHR · INH 3–0 AHR · AHR 1–0 INH

Form · last six in Persha Liga

INHULETS

LWDWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

AHROBIZNES VOLOCHYSK

LWLWDW1–5 · 6–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	11	+6	21
2	Oleksandria	10	+8	19
3	SK Poltava	10	+9	18
4	Kulykiv	10	+9	17
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	10	+3	17
6	Prykarpattia	10	+3	15
7	Yarud Mariupol'	10	+1	15
8	Metal Kharkiv	11	0	15
9	Inhulets	9	−1	14
10	Lokomotiv Kyiv	10	0	13
11	Kolos Kovalivka II	10	−6	12
12	Nyva Ternopil	10	0	11
13	UCSA	10	−3	10
14	Chernihiv	9	−4	7
15	Polissya II	10	−6	7
16	Probiy Horodenka	10	−19	5