Chernihiv v Ahrobiznes Volochysk prediction · Persha Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Ahrobiznes Volochysk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chernihiv 32%, draw 29%, Ahrobiznes Volochysk 39%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Chernihiv v Ahrobiznes VolochyskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Chernihiv win32%

Draw29%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk win39%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueChernihiv Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chernihiv

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Persha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ahrobiznes volochysk winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Ahrobiznes Volochysk a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chernihiv v Ahrobiznes Volochysk~~1.13 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 23~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ahrobiznes Volochysk win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chernihiv win	32%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Ahrobiznes Volochysk win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Chernihiv or draw	61%	–	–
Chernihiv clean sheet	29%	–	–
Ahrobiznes Volochysk clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.1 10.9 7.3 3.2 1 9.7 13.3 8.0 3.4 2 5.8 7.1 4.5 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chernihiv down, Ahrobiznes Volochysk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,156 Persha Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chernihiv at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ahrobiznes Volochysk away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Chernihiv, 1.27 for Ahrobiznes Volochysk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AHR 1–0 CHE · CHE 0–2 AHR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persha Liga this season · since 5 Sept

CHERNIHIV

WLLLWL1–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

AHROBIZNES VOLOCHYSK

LWDWWW2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	12	+7	24
2	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	12	+5	23
3	SK Poltava	12	+12	21
4	Kulykiv	12	+11	21
5	Yarud Mariupol'	12	+5	21
6	Oleksandria	12	+6	20
7	Lokomotiv Kyiv	12	+2	17
8	Nyva Ternopil	12	+2	15
9	Metal Kharkiv	12	−1	15
10	Prykarpattia	12	−2	15
11	Inhulets	11	−5	14
12	Kolos Kovalivka II	12	−8	13
13	UCSA	12	−4	11
14	Chernihiv	11	−4	10
15	Probiy Horodenka	12	−18	9
16	Polissya II	12	−8	8