Vilkhivtsi v Nyva Vinnytsya prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VilkhivtsiDrawNyva Vinnytsya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Nyva Vinnytsya 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nyva Vinnytsya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vilkhivtsi 33%, draw 28%, Nyva Vinnytsya 40%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Vilkhivtsi v Nyva VinnytsyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vilkhivtsi win33%

Draw28%

Nyva Vinnytsya win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vilkhivtsi

Nyva Vinnytsya

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nyva Vinnytsya	10	+7	19
4	Vilkhivtsi	10	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyva vinnytsya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Nyva Vinnytsya a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vilkhivtsi v Nyva Vinnytsya~~1.15 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 19~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nyva Vinnytsya win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vilkhivtsi win	33%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Nyva Vinnytsya win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Vilkhivtsi or draw	60%	–	–
Vilkhivtsi clean sheet	28%	–	–
Nyva Vinnytsya clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.7 11.2 7.3 3.2 1 9.9 12.5 7.9 3.5 2 5.7 7.0 4.5 2.0 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vilkhivtsi down, Nyva Vinnytsya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 995 Druha Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vilkhivtsi at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nyva Vinnytsya away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Vilkhivtsi, 1.29 for Nyva Vinnytsya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NYV 2–2 VIL · NYV 1–0 VIL · NYV 3–1 VIL · VIL 1–2 NYV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

VILKHIVTSI

LWWWDD0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

NYVA VINNYTSYA

WWWDDW4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bratslav Vinnytsia	11	+17	25
2	Nyva Vinnytsya	10	+7	19
3	Dnister Zalishchyky	10	+4	18
4	Vilkhivtsi	10	−2	13
5	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	10	−4	13
6	Nyva Ternopil II	11	−7	12
7	Skala 1911 Stryi	9	−2	11
8	Dinaz Vyshhorod	10	−10	7
9	Ruh Lviv	9	−3	4