Trostianets v Atlet prediction · Druha Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:08

Trostianets 1–1 Atlet TROSTIANETS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Trostianets win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trostianets win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Trostianets 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Trostianets v Atlet
2′Atlet score on 1′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–22–56
2′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Trostianets 0–1 Atlet
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Atlet win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Trostianets win 44%)
15′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
27′Trostianets find the net on 27′. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–32–28
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Trostianets 1–1 Atlet
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Trostianets win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Atlet win 60%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–61 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
32′Trostianets level it on 10′ through V. Koltsov. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–34–28
35′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME Trostianets 1–1 Atlet
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Trostianets win 37%)
46′SECOND HALF Trostianets 1–1 Atlet
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
53′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
60′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
91′We said Trostianets at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Trostianets win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Trostianets 1–1 Atlet
FTTrostianets 1–1 Atlet · Trostianets win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Trostianets are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trostianets 44%, draw 26%, Atlet 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Trostianets v AtletBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Trostianets win44%

Draw26%

Atlet win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trostianets

Atlet

7Days since last match22

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 2 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Trostianets	9	+3	13
6	Atlet	8	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trostianets winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Trostianets a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trostianets v Atlet~~1.51 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trostianets win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Atlet win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Trostianets or draw	70%	–	–
Trostianets clean sheet	32%	–	–
Atlet clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.6 8.1 4.8 1 10.2 11.8 6.8 2.8 2 7.6 8.5 5.0 2.0 3 3.9 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trostianets down, Atlet across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 995 Druha Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.5% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trostianets at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlet away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Trostianets, 1.18 for Atlet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–1 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 Aug

TROSTIANETS

DDWDWL0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

ATLET

WWDWLD3–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
4	Trostianets	9	+3	13
5	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
6	Atlet	8	+4	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5