Rebel v SC Poltava 2 prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RebelDrawSC Poltava 2

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Rebel 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rebel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rebel 43%, draw 28%, SC Poltava 2 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Rebel v SC Poltava 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rebel win43%

Draw28%

SC Poltava 2 win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rebel

SC Poltava 2

22Days since last match7

Last match: 3 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Druha Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
7	Rebel	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rebel winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Rebel a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rebel v SC Poltava 2~~1.29 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rebel win

Published at 45%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rebel win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
SC Poltava 2 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Rebel or draw	71%	–	–
Rebel clean sheet	38%	–	–
SC Poltava 2 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 11.2 10.1 5.2 1 12.8 12.7 6.2 2.2 2 8.2 7.8 3.9 3 3.7 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rebel down, SC Poltava 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rebel at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SC Poltava 2 away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Rebel, 1.00 for SC Poltava 2. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SCP 2–0 REB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug

REBEL

LWWDDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

SC POLTAVA 2

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	Trostianets	10	+3	14
4	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
5	Atlet	9	+4	13
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5