Rebel v Atlet prediction · Druha Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Rebel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rebel 45%, draw 22%, Atlet 32%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Rebel v AtletBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · postponed, not graded

Rebel win45%

Draw22%

Atlet win32%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rebel

Atlet

17Days since last match18

Last match: 3 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 2 Oct · Druha Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Atlet	8	+4	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rebel winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 19 Oct 10:42 · postponed, not graded

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Rebel a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rebel v Atlet~~1.85 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~7 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rebel win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rebel win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Atlet win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Rebel or draw	68%	–	–
Rebel clean sheet	24%	–	–
Atlet clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.3 5.7 4.2 2.1 1 6.8 9.8 7.0 3.5 2 6.0 8.3 6.0 3.1 3 3.6 5.0 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rebel down, Atlet across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 994 Druha Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rebel at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlet away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Rebel, 1.51 for Atlet. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–3 REB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug

REBEL

LWWDDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

ATLET

WWDWLD3–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
4	Trostianets	9	+3	13
5	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
6	Atlet	8	+4	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5