Penuel v Oleksandria II prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PenuelDrawOleksandria II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Oleksandria II 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oleksandria II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penuel 19%, draw 23%, Oleksandria II 58%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Penuel v Oleksandria IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Penuel win19%

Draw23%

Oleksandria II win58%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 10:15

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penuel

Oleksandria II

12Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oleksandria ii winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Oleksandria II a 58% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penuel v Oleksandria II~~0.93 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penuel win	19%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Oleksandria II win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Penuel or draw	42%	–	–
Penuel clean sheet	17%	–	–
Oleksandria II clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.5%

0123450 7.0 11.5 10.4 6.4 3.1 1 5.8 10.6 9.2 5.7 2.7 2 2.8 4.8 4.3 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penuel down, Oleksandria II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penuel at home: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Oleksandria II away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Penuel, 1.85 for Oleksandria II. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OLE 3–0 PEN · PEN 1–1 OLE · OLE 1–0 PEN · PEN 1–1 OLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

PENUEL

LLLDLL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–8 · 0–3

OLEKSANDRIA II

LDDLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
4	Trostianets	9	+3	13
5	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
6	Atlet	8	+4	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5