Penuel v Metalurh Zaporizhya prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PenuelDrawMetalurh Zaporizhya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Metalurh Zaporizhya 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalurh Zaporizhya are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penuel 18%, draw 20%, Metalurh Zaporizhya 62%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Penuel v Metalurh ZaporizhyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Penuel win18%

Draw20%

Metalurh Zaporizhya win62%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:15

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penuel

Metalurh Zaporizhya

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
9	Penuel	10	−19	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalurh zaporizhya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Metalurh Zaporizhya a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.2, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penuel v Metalurh Zaporizhya~~1.02 – 2.15

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metalurh Zaporizhya win

Published at 60%, 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penuel win	18%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Penuel or draw	38%	–	–
Penuel clean sheet	13%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.4%

0123450 5.0 9.2 9.4 6.6 3.7 1 4.5 9.3 9.2 6.4 3.5 2 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penuel down, Metalurh Zaporizhya across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penuel at home: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Metalurh Zaporizhya away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Penuel, 2.15 for Metalurh Zaporizhya. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MET 2–2 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 Aug

PENUEL

LLLDLL0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–8 · 0–3

METALURH ZAPORIZHYA

LLWLWW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	Trostianets	10	+3	14
4	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
5	Atlet	9	+4	13
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5