Penuel v Karbon Cherkasy prediction · Druha Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 14:01

Penuel 1–8 Karbon Cherkasy KARBON CHERKASY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karbon Cherkasy win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karbon Cherkasy win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF Penuel v Karbon Cherkasy
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Penuel 0–1 Karbon Cherkasy
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Penuel 0–2 Karbon Cherkasy
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Penuel 0–3 Karbon Cherkasy
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Penuel 0–4 Karbon Cherkasy
45′HALF-TIME Penuel 0–4 Karbon Cherkasy
46′SECOND HALF Penuel 0–4 Karbon Cherkasy
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Penuel 0–5 Karbon Cherkasy
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Penuel 0–6 Karbon Cherkasy
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Penuel 0–7 Karbon Cherkasy
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Penuel 1–7 Karbon Cherkasy
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Penuel 1–8 Karbon Cherkasy
FTFULL TIME Penuel 1–8 Karbon Cherkasy
FTPenuel 1–8 Karbon Cherkasy · Karbon Cherkasy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 09:58 · locked at kick-off

Penuel win20%

Draw21%

Karbon Cherkasy win59%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 10:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Penuel

Karbon Cherkasy

10Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Karbon Cherkasy	8	+4	15
17	Penuel	8	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karbon cherkasy winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 09:58 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Karbon Cherkasy a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penuel win	20%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Penuel or draw	41%	–	–
Penuel clean sheet	15%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 5.3 9.4 9.1 6.1 3.2 1 5.1 9.7 9.2 6.1 3.2 2 2.8 5.1 4.9 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penuel down, Karbon Cherkasy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 Druha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penuel at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Karbon Cherkasy away: 2.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Penuel, 2.03 for Karbon Cherkasy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KAR 0–1 PEN

Form · last six in Druha Liga

PENUEL

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

KARBON CHERKASY

DWDDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bratslav Vinnytsia	9	+17	23
2	Dnister Zalishchyky	9	+4	17
3	Nyva Vinnytsya	9	+6	16
4	Karbon Cherkasy	8	+4	15
5	Lozova	8	0	13
6	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	9	−3	13
7	Atlet	8	+4	12
8	Vilkhivtsi	9	−2	12
9	Rebel	8	0	11
10	SC Poltava 2	9	−2	11
11	Trostianets	7	+3	10
12	Oleksandria II	8	+1	10
13	Nyva Ternopil II	9	−7	10
14	Metalurh Zaporizhya	8	−1	9
15	Skala 1911 Stryi	8	−5	8
16	Dinaz Vyshhorod	9	−7	7
17	Penuel	8	−9	5
18	Ruh Lviv	9	−3	4