Oleksandria II v Lozova prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oleksandria IIDrawLozova

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Oleksandria II 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Oleksandria II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Oleksandria II 37%, draw 30%, Lozova 33%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Oleksandria II v LozovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Oleksandria II win37%

Draw30%

Lozova win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oleksandria II

Lozova

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oleksandria ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Oleksandria II a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oleksandria II v Lozova~~1.13 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oleksandria II win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Lozova win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Oleksandria II or draw	67%	–	–
Oleksandria II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Lozova clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 12.3 11.7 6.3 2.3 1 12.5 13.0 6.7 2.5 2 7.1 7.1 3.8 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oleksandria II down, Lozova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oleksandria II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lozova away: 1.00 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Oleksandria II, 1.06 for Lozova. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LOZ 1–1 OLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

OLEKSANDRIA II

LDDLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

LOZOVA

LWWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	Trostianets	10	+3	14
4	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
5	Atlet	9	+4	13
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5