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Nyva Vinnytsya v Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Nyva Vinnytsya
2–1Full time
Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Druha Liga · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Nyva Vinnytsya 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi NYVA VINNYTSYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nyva Vinnytsya win53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.331

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nyva Vinnytsya win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nyva Vinnytsya 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nyva Vinnytsya v Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  4. 17′A goal for Nyva Vinnytsya on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
  5. 17′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nyva Vinnytsya 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–7
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Nyva Vinnytsya 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Nyva Vinnytsya 1–0 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  11. 55′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  12. 56′Podillya Khmelnytskyi score on 55′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–43–20
  13. 56′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–43–20
  14. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Nyva Vinnytsya 1–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  15. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 37% now
  16. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Nyva Vinnytsya win 37%)
  17. 61′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
  18. 62′57′: M. Perekhodko on the scoresheet for Podillya Khmelnytskyi, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–48–19
  19. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  20. 68′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
  21. 74′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–14
  22. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 22% now
  23. 78′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
  24. 78′Nyva Vinnytsya find the net on 78′. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  25. 78′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  26. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Nyva Vinnytsya 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  27. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 89% now
  28. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Nyva Vinnytsya win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  29. 80′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  30. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Nyva Vinnytsya win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  31. 87′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  32. 88′Nyva Vinnytsya ahead on 72′ through N. Popov. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
  33. 94′Nyva Vinnytsya ahead on 72′ through N. Popov. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  34. 94′We said Nyva Vinnytsya at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  35. 95′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Nyva Vinnytsya 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi
  37. FTNyva Vinnytsya 2–1 Podillya Khmelnytskyi · Nyva Vinnytsya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nyva Vinnytsya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nyva Vinnytsya 53%, draw 23%, Podillya Khmelnytskyi 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Nyva Vinnytsya v Podillya KhmelnytskyiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nyva Vinnytsya win53%
Draw23%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nyva Vinnytsya

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Nyva Vinnytsya9+616
4Podillya Khmelnytskyi9−313

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nyva vinnytsya winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:50 · locked at kick-off
53% The market–
Us53%

We make Nyva Vinnytsya a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nyva Vinnytsya v Podillya Khmelnytskyi1.86 – 1.15
Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 AugW3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 16 v 133 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 11 OCT 04:0717 OCT 12:26
Our probability · Nyva Vinnytsya win

Published at 54%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nyva Vinnytsya win53%––
Draw23%––
Podillya Khmelnytskyi win24%––
Over 2.5 goals57%––
Both teams to score56%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals35%––
Nyva Vinnytsya or draw76%––
Nyva Vinnytsya clean sheet33%––
Podillya Khmelnytskyi clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 5.6 6.0 3.5 1 9.3 10.3 5.9 2.4 2 8.3 9.1 5.2 2.1 3 5.2 5.6 3.2 4 2.5 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nyva Vinnytsya down, Podillya Khmelnytskyi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsPOD 2–1 NYV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 29 Aug

NYVA VINNYTSYA

DWWWDD0–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

PODILLYA KHMELNYTSKYI

LWWWLL2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27 · group 1
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bratslav Vinnytsia9+1723
2Dnister Zalishchyky9+417
3Nyva Vinnytsya9+616
4Podillya Khmelnytskyi9−313
5Vilkhivtsi9−212
6Nyva Ternopil II9−710
7Skala 1911 Stryi8−58
8Dinaz Vyshhorod9−77
9Ruh Lviv9−34

The competition's standings before kick-off.