Nyva Ternopil II v Bratslav Vinnytsia prediction · Druha Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Nyva Ternopil II 1–1 Bratslav Vinnytsia BRATSLAV VINNYTSIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bratslav Vinnytsia win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.066

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bratslav Vinnytsia win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bratslav Vinnytsia 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
1′KICK-OFF Nyva Ternopil II v Bratslav Vinnytsia
21′Nyva Ternopil II score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 41–26–32
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nyva Ternopil II 1–0 Bratslav Vinnytsia
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Bratslav Vinnytsia win: 64% at kick-off, 32% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Nyva Ternopil II win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bratslav Vinnytsia win 59%)
22′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 41–27–32
28′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–27–29
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 44–28–28
38′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 47–28–24
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Bratslav Vinnytsia win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
45′HALF-TIME Nyva Ternopil II 1–0 Bratslav Vinnytsia
46′SECOND HALF Nyva Ternopil II 1–0 Bratslav Vinnytsia
48′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 52–29–19
57′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 57–28–14
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Bratslav Vinnytsia win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
66′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
75′We said Bratslav Vinnytsia at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–21–4
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Bratslav Vinnytsia win: 64% at kick-off, 4% now
89′Bratslav Vinnytsia find the net on 89′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–90–7
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Nyva Ternopil II 1–1 Bratslav Vinnytsia
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Nyva Ternopil II win 93%)
FTFULL TIME Nyva Ternopil II 1–1 Bratslav Vinnytsia
FTNyva Ternopil II 1–1 Bratslav Vinnytsia · Bratslav Vinnytsia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bratslav Vinnytsia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nyva Ternopil II 15%, draw 21%, Bratslav Vinnytsia 64%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Nyva Ternopil II v Bratslav VinnytsiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nyva Ternopil II win15%

Draw21%

Bratslav Vinnytsia win64%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nyva Ternopil II

Bratslav Vinnytsia

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bratslav vinnytsia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Bratslav Vinnytsia a 64% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nyva Ternopil II v Bratslav Vinnytsia~~0.85 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 24~~7 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bratslav Vinnytsia win

Published at 66%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nyva Ternopil II win	15%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Bratslav Vinnytsia win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Nyva Ternopil II or draw	36%	–	–
Nyva Ternopil II clean sheet	14%	–	–
Bratslav Vinnytsia clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.2 11.3 11.2 7.7 4.1 1 4.8 9.5 9.1 6.2 3.3 2 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nyva Ternopil II down, Bratslav Vinnytsia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 994 Druha Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nyva Ternopil II at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bratslav Vinnytsia away: 3.25 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Nyva Ternopil II, 2.06 for Bratslav Vinnytsia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BRA 4–0 NYV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

NYVA TERNOPIL II

LWLLDD1–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

BRATSLAV VINNYTSIA

WDWWWD2–0 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bratslav Vinnytsia	10	+17	24
2	Nyva Vinnytsya	10	+7	19
3	Dnister Zalishchyky	10	+4	18
4	Vilkhivtsi	10	−2	13
5	Podillya Khmelnytskyi	10	−4	13
6	Skala 1911 Stryi	9	−2	11
7	Nyva Ternopil II	10	−7	11
8	Dinaz Vyshhorod	10	−10	7
9	Ruh Lviv	9	−3	4