Metalurh Zaporizhya v Rebel prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Metalurh ZaporizhyaDrawRebel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Metalurh Zaporizhya 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Metalurh Zaporizhya just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalurh Zaporizhya 38%, draw 26%, Rebel 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Metalurh Zaporizhya v RebelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Metalurh Zaporizhya win38%

Draw26%

Rebel win36%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSlavutych-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalurh Zaporizhya

Rebel

13Days since last match27

Last match: 17 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 3 Oct · Druha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalurh zaporizhya winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Metalurh Zaporizhya a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalurh Zaporizhya v Rebel~~1.40 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalurh Zaporizhya win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Rebel win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw	64%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya clean sheet	28%	–	–
Rebel clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.5 8.8 5.9 2.7 1 9.1 11.9 7.6 3.4 2 6.3 7.9 5.1 2.3 3 3.0 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalurh Zaporizhya down, Rebel across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Rebel away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya, 1.34 for Rebel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~REB 2–1 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug

METALURH ZAPORIZHYA

LLWLWW1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

REBEL

LWWDDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	Trostianets	10	+3	14
4	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
5	Atlet	9	+4	13
6	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5