Metalurh Zaporizhya v Oleksandria II prediction · Druha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Metalurh Zaporizhya 2–0 Oleksandria II METALURH ZAPORIZHYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metalurh Zaporizhya win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.613

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Metalurh Zaporizhya just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalurh Zaporizhya 36%, draw 28%, Oleksandria II 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Metalurh Zaporizhya v Oleksandria IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Metalurh Zaporizhya win36%

Draw28%

Oleksandria II win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSlavutych-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalurh Zaporizhya

Oleksandria II

8Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Oleksandria II	9	0	10
8	Metalurh Zaporizhya	8	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalurh zaporizhya winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Metalurh Zaporizhya a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalurh Zaporizhya v Oleksandria II~~1.16 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metalurh Zaporizhya win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalurh Zaporizhya win	36%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Oleksandria II win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya or draw	65%	–	–
Metalurh Zaporizhya clean sheet	33%	–	–
Oleksandria II clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.8 11.4 6.5 2.6 1 11.6 12.7 7.2 2.8 2 6.7 7.2 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalurh Zaporizhya down, Oleksandria II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 Druha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalurh Zaporizhya at home: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Oleksandria II away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Metalurh Zaporizhya, 1.14 for Oleksandria II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OLE 0–0 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 15 Aug

METALURH ZAPORIZHYA

DLLWLW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

OLEKSANDRIA II

WLDDLL3–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Trostianets	8	+4	13
3	Lozova	8	0	13
4	Atlet	8	+4	12
5	SC Poltava 2	9	−2	11
6	Rebel	8	0	11
7	Oleksandria II	9	0	10
8	Metalurh Zaporizhya	8	−1	9
9	Penuel	9	−16	5