Lozova v Trostianets prediction · Druha Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Lozova 1–0 Trostianets TROSTIANETS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trostianets win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Trostianets just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lozova 33%, draw 29%, Trostianets 37%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Lozova v TrostianetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lozova win33%

Draw29%

Trostianets win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lozova

Trostianets

14Days since last match5

Last match: 3 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · Druha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Trostianets	8	+4	13
3	Lozova	8	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trostianets winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Trostianets a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lozova v Trostianets~~1.05 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 13~~3 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trostianets win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lozova win	33%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Trostianets win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Lozova or draw	63%	–	–
Lozova clean sheet	33%	–	–
Trostianets clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 12.2 12.7 7.2 2.8 1 11.7 12.8 7.2 2.8 2 6.2 6.7 3.8 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lozova down, Trostianets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 Druha Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lozova at home: 1.25 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Trostianets away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Lozova, 1.13 for Trostianets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRO 2–0 LOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug

LOZOVA

LLWWWW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

TROSTIANETS

DDDWDW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Trostianets	8	+4	13
3	Lozova	8	0	13
4	Atlet	8	+4	12
5	SC Poltava 2	9	−2	11
6	Rebel	8	0	11
7	Oleksandria II	9	0	10
8	Metalurh Zaporizhya	8	−1	9
9	Penuel	9	−16	5