Karbon Cherkasy v Trostianets prediction · Druha Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Karbon CherkasyDrawTrostianets

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Karbon Cherkasy 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karbon Cherkasy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karbon Cherkasy 46%, draw 26%, Trostianets 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Karbon Cherkasy v TrostianetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Karbon Cherkasy win46%

Draw26%

Trostianets win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karbon Cherkasy

Trostianets

18Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · Druha Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karbon cherkasy winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Karbon Cherkasy a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karbon Cherkasy v Trostianets~~1.52 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 13~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karbon Cherkasy win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Trostianets win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy or draw	72%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy clean sheet	35%	–	–
Trostianets clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.3 8.1 4.5 1 11.1 11.9 6.4 2.4 2 8.3 8.6 4.7 3 4.3 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karbon Cherkasy down, Trostianets across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 997 Druha Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karbon Cherkasy at home: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Trostianets away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Karbon Cherkasy, 1.09 for Trostianets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRO 0–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 4 Sept

KARBON CHERKASY

WDDWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 8–1

TROSTIANETS

DWDWLD0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27 · Second League · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Lozova	9	+1	16
3	SC Poltava 2	10	+1	14
4	Trostianets	9	+3	13
5	Metalurh Zaporizhya	9	+1	12
6	Atlet	8	+4	12
7	Rebel	8	0	11
8	Oleksandria II	10	−2	10
9	Penuel	10	−19	5