Karbon Cherkasy v Rebel prediction · Druha Liga

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Karbon Cherkasy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karbon Cherkasy 51%, draw 22%, Rebel 27%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Karbon Cherkasy v RebelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Karbon Cherkasy win51%

Draw22%

Rebel win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karbon Cherkasy

Rebel

4Days since last match13

Last match: 12 Oct · Druha Liga

Last match: 3 Oct · Druha Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karbon cherkasy winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:50 · postponed, not graded

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Karbon Cherkasy a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karbon Cherkasy v Rebel~~1.96 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karbon Cherkasy win

Published at 43%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karbon Cherkasy win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rebel win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy or draw	73%	–	–
Karbon Cherkasy clean sheet	27%	–	–
Rebel clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 5.4 3.6 1 7.5 9.7 6.3 2.9 2 6.9 8.7 5.7 2.6 3 4.4 5.5 3.7 4 2.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karbon Cherkasy down, Rebel across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 Druha Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Druha Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karbon Cherkasy at home: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Rebel away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Karbon Cherkasy, 1.35 for Rebel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~REB 3–5 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Druha Liga this season · since 16 Aug

KARBON CHERKASY

WDDWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 8–1

REBEL

LWWDDL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Karbon Cherkasy	9	+11	18
2	Trostianets	8	+4	13
3	Lozova	8	0	13
4	Atlet	8	+4	12
5	SC Poltava 2	9	−2	11
6	Rebel	8	0	11
7	Oleksandria II	9	0	10
8	Metalurh Zaporizhya	8	−1	9
9	Penuel	9	−16	5