Shakhtar Donetsk v Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar DonetskDynamo KyivCup · TUE 27 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk 53%, draw 23%, Dynamo Kyiv 24%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Shakhtar Donetsk win53%Dynamo Kyiv win24%Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
Shakhtar DonetskMINDynamo KyivEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dynamo Kyiv
Last match: 24 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League
Last match: 23 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Shakhtar Donetsk a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | −4 |
| Dynamo Kyiv win | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 72% | +10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 30% | +8 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk or draw | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 10 Sept
SHAKHTAR DONETSK
DYNAMO KYIV