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Model 1.2

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Karpaty v Oleksandria

Karpaty
16:00Upcoming
Oleksandria

Cup · THU 29 OCT · Ukraina Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KarpatyDrawOleksandria
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Karpaty 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karpaty are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karpaty 56%, draw 25%, Oleksandria 19%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Karpaty v OleksandriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Karpaty win56%
Draw25%
Oleksandria win19%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueUkraina Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karpaty

Oleksandria

11Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · the Ukrainian Premier League

Last match: 24 Oct · Persha Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · karpaty winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
56% The market–
Us56%

We make Karpaty a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Karpaty v Oleksandria1.76 – 0.91
Form · Cup this season · since 21 AugW2 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Karpaty win56%––
Draw25%––
Oleksandria win19%––
Over 2.5 goals49%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals75%––
Over 3.5 goals28%––
Karpaty or draw81%––
Karpaty clean sheet41%––
Oleksandria clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 8.0 5.8 3.0 1 11.6 11.6 5.0 2 10.5 9.4 4.3 3 6.2 5.5 2.5 4 2.8 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Karpaty down, Oleksandria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsKAR 2–0 OLE · OLE 0–2 KAR · KAR 2–1 OLE · OLE 3–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 21 Aug

KARPATY

WW2–0 · 3–2

OLEKSANDRIA

WD2–0 · 1–1