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Vipers v Police

Vipers

0–0Full time

Police

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Vipers 0–0 Police VIPERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vipers win~~75%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.259

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.387

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vipers win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vipers was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–17–8
1′KICK-OFF Vipers v Police
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
34′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–27–9
42′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–31–9
45′HALF-TIME Vipers 0–0 Police
46′SECOND HALF Vipers 0–0 Police
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 55% now
50′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–37–9
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 51–40–9
57′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–42–9
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 45% now
62′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–47–8
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Vipers win 46%)
65′Vipers find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–1
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Vipers 1–0 Police
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 92% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Vipers win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 50%)
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Vipers
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 40% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Vipers win 92%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 34% now
75′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–65–6
78′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–70–5
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 24% now
81′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–76–4
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 15% now
84′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–83–3
88′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Vipers win: 75% at kick-off, 5% now
93′We said Vipers at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
FTFULL TIME Vipers 0–0 Police
FTVipers 0–0 Police · Vipers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vipers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vipers 75%, draw 17%, Police 8%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Vipers v PoliceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vipers win75%

Draw17%

Police win8%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vipers

Police

8Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
12	Police	6	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vipers winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

75% The market80%

Us75%

~~Market~~80%

We make Vipers a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vipers v Police~~2.26 – 0.56

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~5 v 12

~~The market · Vipers win~~80% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vipers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vipers win	75%	80%	−5
Draw	17%	14%	+3
Police win	8%	5%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	38%	30%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Vipers or draw	92%	95%	−3
Vipers clean sheet	58%	–	–
Police clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.0%

0123450 6.6 3.3 1 13.5 7.8 2.2 2 15.0 8.2 2.3 3 11.2 6.1 4 6.4 3.5 5 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Vipers down, Police across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,208 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vipers at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Police away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Vipers, 0.56 for Police. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~POL 0–0 VIP · VIP 4–1 POL · POL 0–1 VIP · VIP 2–1 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

VIPERS

LWWDW0–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0

POLICE

WLDWLL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1