Vipers v Maroons prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Vipers 1–1 Maroons VIPERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vipers win~~69%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.110

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vipers win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vipers 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–21–9
2′Little has changed for our model: Vipers 69% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–21–9
42′27′ and it is 0–1: Maroons have scored. 0–1 · 21–32–47
45′27′ and it is 0–1: Maroons have scored. 0–1 · 20–32–48
48′We said Vipers at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–32–50
69′Vipers find the net on 65′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–61–7
72′Vipers find the net on 65′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–65–7
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
90′We said Vipers at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 32% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Vipers win: 69% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Vipers 1–1 Maroons
FTVipers 1–1 Maroons · Vipers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vipers win69%

Draw21%

Maroons win9%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vipers

Maroons

3Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Vipers	3	+6	6
10	Maroons	5	+2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vipers winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

69% The market72%

Us69%

~~Market~~72%

We make Vipers a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vipers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vipers win	69%	72%	−3
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Maroons win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	33%	39%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
Vipers or draw	91%	91%	0
Vipers clean sheet	61%	–	–
Maroons clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%

0123450 10.0 4.8 1 17.5 8.9 2.3 2 16.0 7.9 2.0 3 9.9 4.9 4 4.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vipers down, Maroons across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,193 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.0% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vipers at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Maroons away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Vipers, 0.50 for Maroons. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–3 VIP · VIP 2–1 MAR · MAR 0–1 VIP · VIP 1–0 MAR

Form · last six in Premier League

VIPERS

DWWLWW0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 4–0

MAROONS

WLWLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	4	+8	12
2	NEC	5	+7	11
3	SC Villa	5	+6	11
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	Blacks Power	5	−2	9
6	Kitara	4	+2	8
7	Police	5	−1	7
8	KCCA	5	−2	7
9	Vipers	3	+6	6
10	Maroons	5	+2	6
11	Lugazi	5	−5	6
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	URA	4	−4	3
15	Ntugasaze	5	−8	3
16	Mbarara City	4	−2	2
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	4	−5	1