URA v Entebbe UPPC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:30

URA 0–0 Entebbe UPPC URA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said URA win~~39%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.668

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.674

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said URA win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: URA was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–28
1′KICK-OFF URA v Entebbe UPPC
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was URA win 35%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' URA win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
45′HALF-TIME URA 0–0 Entebbe UPPC
46′SECOND HALF URA 0–0 Entebbe UPPC
49′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–52–21
57′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
66′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' URA win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
74′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
81′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' URA win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
88′We said URA at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME URA 0–0 Entebbe UPPC
FTURA 0–0 Entebbe UPPC · URA win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

URA are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: URA 39%, draw 34%, Entebbe UPPC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on URA v Entebbe UPPCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

URA win39%

Draw34%

Entebbe UPPC win28%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueHamz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

URA

Entebbe UPPC

6Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
15	URA	4	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ura winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 10 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make URA a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · URA v Entebbe UPPC~~0.99 – 0.78

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~15 v 4

~~The market · URA win~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · URA win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
URA win	39%	31%	+8
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Entebbe UPPC win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Both teams to score	34%	46%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	53%	62%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	11%	20%	−9
URA or draw	72%	64%	+8
URA clean sheet	46%	–	–
Entebbe UPPC clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.7%

0123450 17.7 13.0 5.3 1 16.4 13.1 5.1 2 8.2 6.3 2.5 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+URA down, Entebbe UPPC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.3% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

URA at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Entebbe UPPC away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for URA, 0.78 for Entebbe UPPC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ENT 0–0 URA · URA 0–1 ENT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

URA

WLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

ENTEBBE UPPC

WWLDW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	+11	14
2	NEC	6	+9	14
3	BUL	5	+8	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	KCCA	6	0	10
6	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
7	Kitara	4	+2	8
8	Vipers	4	+6	7
9	Maroons	6	+2	7
10	Lugazi	6	−5	7
11	Police	6	−6	7
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	4	−4	3
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1