UPDF v URA prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UPDFDrawURA

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · URA 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with URA just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: UPDF 34%, draw 32%, URA 35%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on UPDF v URABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

UPDF win34%

Draw32%

URA win35%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueHamz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UPDF

URA

9Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
15	URA	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ura winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make URA a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UPDF v URA~~0.99 – 1.01

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~10 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · URA win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UPDF win	34%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
URA win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
UPDF or draw	65%	–	–
UPDF clean sheet	37%	–	–
URA clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 13.3 6.9 2.4 1 13.0 13.6 6.7 2.3 2 6.7 6.6 3.3 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UPDF down, URA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UPDF at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). URA away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for UPDF, 1.01 for URA. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UPD 0–0 URA · URA 3–2 UPD · URA 2–1 UPD · UPD 0–0 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

UPDF

DLDWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

URA

WLLLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1