UPDF v Kitara prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UPDFDrawKitara

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kitara 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kitara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UPDF 24%, draw 30%, Kitara 46%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on UPDF v KitaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

UPDF win24%

Draw30%

Kitara win46%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UPDF

Kitara

13Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kitara winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Kitara a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UPDF v Kitara~~0.82 – 1.24

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UPDF win	24%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Kitara win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
UPDF or draw	54%	–	–
UPDF clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kitara clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.4%

0123450 13.5 15.4 9.7 4.1 1 10.1 13.1 7.8 3.3 2 4.3 5.2 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UPDF down, Kitara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UPDF at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kitara away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for UPDF, 1.24 for Kitara. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~UPD 1–1 KIT · KIT 2–1 UPD · UPD 0–0 KIT · KIT 4–0 UPD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

UPDF

DLDWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

KITARA

DDWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1