UPDF v BUL prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

UPDF 0–2 BUL BUL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BUL win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BUL win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BUL 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
1′KICK-OFF UPDF v BUL
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was BUL win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME UPDF 0–0 BUL
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' BUL win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′SECOND HALF UPDF 0–0 BUL
51′We said BUL at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 22–50–27
59′A goal for BUL on 58′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
59′We said BUL at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' UPDF 0–1 BUL
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' BUL win: 39% at kick-off, 80% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' BUL win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
60′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 3–16–81
69′We said BUL at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' BUL win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
77′BUL score on 76′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′We said BUL at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' UPDF 0–2 BUL
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' BUL win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
80′We said BUL at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME UPDF 0–2 BUL
FTUPDF 0–2 BUL · BUL win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BUL are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UPDF 30%, draw 31%, BUL 39%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on UPDF v BULBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UPDF win30%

Draw31%

BUL win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueNakivubo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UPDF

BUL

3Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	BUL	5	+8	13
9	UPDF	5	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bul winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make BUL a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UPDF v BUL~~0.92 – 1.09

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~9 v 3

~~The market · BUL win~~43% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BUL win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UPDF win	30%	26%	+4
Draw	31%	31%	0
BUL win	39%	43%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	60%	66%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	15%	21%	−6
UPDF or draw	61%	57%	+4
UPDF clean sheet	34%	–	–
BUL clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%

0123450 14.0 14.3 8.0 3.0 1 11.9 13.5 7.2 2.7 2 5.7 6.1 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UPDF down, BUL across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,202 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UPDF at home: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). BUL away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for UPDF, 1.09 for BUL. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUL 2–5 UPD · UPD 0–1 BUL · UPD 2–3 BUL · BUL 0–2 UPD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

UPDF

DLDWW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

BUL

WWWWD1–0 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	+11	14
2	NEC	6	+9	14
3	BUL	5	+8	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	KCCA	6	0	10
7	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
8	Kitara	4	+2	8
9	UPDF	5	+1	8
10	Maroons	6	+2	7
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
14	Express	6	−2	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	6	−10	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1