SC Villa v Mbarara City prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01

SC Villa 2–0 Mbarara City SC VILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Villa win~~72%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.123

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Villa win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SC Villa 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–20–8
1′KICK-OFF SC Villa v Mbarara City
12′A goal for SC Villa on 12′. 0–0 · 69–23–9
12′We said SC Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' SC Villa 1–0 Mbarara City
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' SC Villa win: 72% at kick-off, 91% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 91–8–1
45′HALF-TIME SC Villa 1–0 Mbarara City
45′SECOND HALF SC Villa 1–0 Mbarara City
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' SC Villa win: 72% at kick-off, 92% now
77′We said SC Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′A goal for SC Villa on 85′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' SC Villa 2–0 Mbarara City
86′We said SC Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SC Villa 2–0 Mbarara City
FTSC Villa 2–0 Mbarara City · SC Villa win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Villa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Villa 72%, draw 20%, Mbarara City 8%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on SC Villa v Mbarara CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

SC Villa win72%

Draw20%

Mbarara City win8%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMutesa II Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Villa

Mbarara City

5Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Lesotho)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc villa winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

72% The market74%

Us72%

~~Market~~74%

We make SC Villa a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Villa v Mbarara City~~1.99 – 0.50

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~2 v 14

~~The market · SC Villa win~~74% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Villa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Villa win	72%	74%	−2
Draw	20%	18%	+2
Mbarara City win	8%	7%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	33%	40%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	35%	−11
SC Villa or draw	92%	93%	−1
SC Villa clean sheet	61%	–	–
Mbarara City clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.4%

0123450 9.0 4.1 1 16.4 8.4 2.1 2 16.1 7.9 3 10.7 5.2 4 5.5 2.6 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Villa down, Mbarara City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.7% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Villa at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mbarara City away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for SC Villa, 0.50 for Mbarara City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MBA 1–3 SCV · SCV 6–1 MBA · MBA 0–2 SCV · SCV 4–2 MBA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

SC VILLA

DWWWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 6–1

MBARARA CITY

LDDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1