SC Villa v Blacks Power prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SC VillaDrawBlacks Power

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SC Villa 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Villa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Villa 73%, draw 18%, Blacks Power 9%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on SC Villa v Blacks PowerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SC Villa win73%

Draw18%

Blacks Power win9%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueMutesa II Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Villa

Blacks Power

5Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc villa winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make SC Villa a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Villa v Blacks Power~~2.28 – 0.62

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Villa win	73%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Blacks Power win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
SC Villa or draw	91%	–	–
SC Villa clean sheet	54%	–	–
Blacks Power clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.8%

0123450 6.4 3.6 1 12.6 8.1 2.5 2 13.8 8.3 2.7 3 10.3 6.1 4 6.0 3.5 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Villa down, Blacks Power across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Villa at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Blacks Power away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for SC Villa, 0.62 for Blacks Power. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCV 1–0 BLA · BLA 0–1 SCV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

SC VILLA

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 2–0

BLACKS POWER

WWLLLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1