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Model 1.1

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Police v SC Villa

Police
1–6Full time
SC Villa

Premier League · WED 14 OCT · Kiira Road Police Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:31
Police 1–6 SC Villa SC VILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SC Villa win40%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.544
The market’s Brier score0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SC Villa win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: SC Villa was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Police v SC Villa
  4. 8′A goal for SC Villa on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Police 0–1 SC Villa
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' SC Villa win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 9′We published SC Villa at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  8. 13′14′ and it is 0–2: SC Villa have scored. 0–2 · 2–7–90
  9. 13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Police 0–2 SC Villa
  10. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' SC Villa win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  11. 14′We published SC Villa at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  12. 18′13′ and it is 0–2: J. Asiimwe on the scoresheet for SC Villa. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  13. 44′We published SC Villa at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  14. 45′SC Villa find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  15. 45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Police 0–3 SC Villa
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Police 0–3 SC Villa
  17. 46′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  18. 47′SECOND HALF Police 0–3 SC Villa
  19. 48′A goal for SC Villa on 49′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  20. 49′We published SC Villa at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  21. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Police 0–4 SC Villa
  22. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' SC Villa win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
  23. 50′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  24. 58′59′ and it is 0–4: SC Villa have scored. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  25. 59′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  26. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Police 0–5 SC Villa
  27. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Police 1–5 SC Villa
  28. 82′Police find the net on 82′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  29. 83′A goal for SC Villa on 84′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  30. 84′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  31. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Police 1–6 SC Villa
  32. 90′Full time, 1–6. We called SC Villa at 40% — that one lands. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  33. 92′J. Sausa scores for SC Villa on 85′ — 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  34. FTFULL TIME Police 1–6 SC Villa
  35. FTPolice 1–6 SC Villa · SC Villa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Police v SC VillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

Police win30%
Draw30%
SC Villa win40%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

VenueKiira Road Police Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Police

SC Villa

5Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3SC Villa5611
10Police5-17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›
Police release statement after 'alarming' fan incident in Middlesbrough v Wolves matchFootball League World · 1 day ago · Police, Middlesbrough, Wolves Police officer injured and 10 arrested at Liverpool vs Man CitySky Sports · 1 day ago · Police, Liverpool, Manchester City Merseyside Police officer suffers serious facial injury during arrest after Liverpool v Manchester CityMirror Football · 1 day ago · Police, Liverpool, Manchester City Police officer injured as 10 arrests made at tense Liverpool v Manchester City matchThe Guardian · 1 day ago · Police, Liverpool, Manchester City

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc villa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
40% The market45%
Us40%
Market45%

We make SC Villa a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Police v SC Villa0.97 – 1.16
Last six in Premier LeagueW2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 7 v 1110 v 3
The market · SC Villa win45% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 04:54
Our probability · sc villa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Police win30%25%+5
Draw30%30%0
SC Villa win40%45%−5
Over 2.5 goals36%39%−4
Both teams to score42%43%0
Over 1.5 goals63%62%+1
Over 3.5 goals17%––
Police or draw60%55%+5
Police clean sheet32%––
SC Villa clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%
0123450 12.5 13.5 8.0 3.2 1 11.3 13.4 7.5 3.0 2 5.6 6.4 3.7 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, SC Villa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsPOL 1–0 SCV · SCV 2–1 POL · POL 1–3 SCV · SCV 1–1 POL

Form · last six in Premier League

POLICE

DWLDWL2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3

SC VILLA

WDWWWD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1BUL5813
2NEC5711
3SC Villa5611
4Entebbe UPPC5410
5KCCA6010
6Blacks Power6-39
7Kitara428
8Vipers467
9Maroons627
10Police5-17
11Lugazi6-57
12UPDF405
13Express5-15
14Mbarara City5-15
15URA4-43
16Ntugasaze6-103
17Kataka5-52
18Kigezi HomeBoyz4-51

The competition's standings.