Police v Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PoliceDrawKigezi HomeBoyz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Police 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Police are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Police 56%, draw 26%, Kigezi HomeBoyz 18%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Police v Kigezi HomeBoyzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Police win56%

Draw26%

Kigezi HomeBoyz win18%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKiira Road Police Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police

Kigezi HomeBoyz

4Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Police	7	−6	8
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Police a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police v Kigezi HomeBoyz~~1.54 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 1~~12 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Police win

Published at 55%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police win	56%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Police or draw	82%	–	–
Police clean sheet	49%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 11.3 7.4 2.9 1 15.5 11.6 4.2 2 11.9 8.4 3.1 3 6.2 4.4 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police down, Kigezi HomeBoyz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Police at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kigezi HomeBoyz away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Police, 0.73 for Kigezi HomeBoyz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

POLICE

LDWLLD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–6 · 0–0

KIGEZI HOMEBOYZ

LDLLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1