Ntugasaze v KCCA prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Ntugasaze 0–2 KCCA KCCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KCCA win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KCCA win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: KCCA was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 20–25–54
1′KICK-OFF Ntugasaze v KCCA
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ntugasaze 0–1 KCCA
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ntugasaze 0–1 KCCA
40′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ntugasaze 0–1 KCCA
45′HALF-TIME Ntugasaze 0–1 KCCA
46′SECOND HALF Ntugasaze 0–1 KCCA
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ntugasaze 0–2 KCCA
FTFULL TIME Ntugasaze 0–2 KCCA
FTNtugasaze 0–2 KCCA · KCCA win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

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2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

Ntugasaze win21%

Draw26%

KCCA win53%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

VenueKiira Road Police Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ntugasaze

KCCA

6Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	KCCA	5	−2	7
16	Ntugasaze	5	−8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kcca winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make KCCA a 53% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ntugasaze win	21%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
KCCA win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Ntugasaze or draw	47%	–	–
Ntugasaze clean sheet	22%	–	–
KCCA clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.5 13.4 10.5 5.7 2.4 1 7.6 11.7 8.7 4.6 2 3.5 5.0 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ntugasaze down, KCCA across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ntugasaze at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). KCCA away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Ntugasaze, 1.58 for KCCA. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Premier League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Premier League

NTUGASAZE

LLLLW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0

KCCA

WLLDWW4–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	4	+8	12
2	NEC	5	+7	11
3	SC Villa	5	+6	11
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
6	Kitara	4	+2	8
7	Vipers	4	+6	7
8	Maroons	6	+2	7
9	Police	5	−1	7
10	KCCA	5	−2	7
11	Lugazi	5	−5	6
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	4	−4	3
16	Ntugasaze	5	−8	3
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	4	−5	1