NEC v Ntugasaze prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NECDrawNtugasaze

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NEC 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NEC 70%, draw 20%, Ntugasaze 10%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on NEC v NtugasazeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

NEC win70%

Draw20%

Ntugasaze win10%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueMTN Omondi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NEC

Ntugasaze

6Days since last match14

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	NEC	7	+8	14
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nec winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make NEC a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NEC v Ntugasaze~~2.02 – 0.56

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 3~~3 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEC win	70%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Ntugasaze win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
NEC or draw	90%	–	–
NEC clean sheet	57%	–	–
Ntugasaze clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 8.6 4.4 1 15.1 8.8 2.5 2 14.8 8.1 2.3 3 9.9 5.4 4 5.2 2.8 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+NEC down, Ntugasaze across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

NEC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ntugasaze away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for NEC, 0.56 for Ntugasaze. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

NEC

WDWDWL3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

NTUGASAZE

LLLLWL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1