Mbarara City v Vipers prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mbarara CityDrawVipers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vipers 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vipers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mbarara City 14%, draw 26%, Vipers 60%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Mbarara City v VipersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mbarara City win14%

Draw26%

Vipers win60%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mbarara City

Vipers

6Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vipers winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Vipers a 60% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mbarara City v Vipers~~0.57 – 1.54

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vipers win

Published at 61%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mbarara City win	14%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Vipers win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Mbarara City or draw	40%	–	–
Mbarara City clean sheet	22%	–	–
Vipers clean sheet	57%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 18.3%

0123450 12.8 18.3 14.2 7.4 3.0 1 6.6 10.7 7.9 4.0 2 2.1 3.0 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mbarara City down, Vipers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mbarara City at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Vipers away: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.57 goals for Mbarara City, 1.54 for Vipers. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MBA 1–2 VIP · VIP 2–0 MBA · VIP 1–0 MBA · MBA 1–3 VIP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

MBARARA CITY

LDDLWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

VIPERS

LWWDWD0–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1