Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MaroonsDrawKigezi HomeBoyz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Maroons 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maroons are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maroons 57%, draw 27%, Kigezi HomeBoyz 16%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Maroons win57%

Draw27%

Kigezi HomeBoyz win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maroons

Kigezi HomeBoyz

11Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maroons winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Maroons a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maroons v Kigezi HomeBoyz~~1.49 – 0.63

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 1~~7 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maroons win	57%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Maroons or draw	84%	–	–
Maroons clean sheet	54%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 12.9 7.4 2.5 1 17.4 11.3 3.5 2 12.9 7.9 2.6 3 6.6 4.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maroons down, Kigezi HomeBoyz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Maroons at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kigezi HomeBoyz away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Maroons, 0.63 for Kigezi HomeBoyz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

MAROONS

WLLWDW3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–1

KIGEZI HOMEBOYZ

LDLLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1