Maroons v Kataka prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 16:30

Maroons 4–1 Kataka MAROONS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maroons win~~60%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.248

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Maroons win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF Maroons v Kataka
2′Much as we predicted: Maroons was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–25–16
20′We published Maroons at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Maroons 1–0 Kataka
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Maroons win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
21′Maroons score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
30′We published Maroons at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′SECOND HALF Maroons 1–0 Kataka
46′HALF-TIME Maroons 1–0 Kataka
53′We published Maroons at 60%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Maroons 2–0 Kataka
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Maroons win: 60% at kick-off, 98% now
54′Maroons find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
75′We published Maroons at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Maroons win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Maroons 3–0 Kataka
78′A goal for Maroons on 77′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Maroons 4–0 Kataka
83′Maroons score on 82′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Maroons 4–1 Kataka
92′Kataka find the net on 90′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′Full time, 4–1. We called Maroons at 60% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Maroons 4–1 Kataka
FTMaroons 4–1 Kataka · Maroons win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maroons are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maroons 60%, draw 25%, Kataka 16%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Maroons v KatakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Maroons win60%

Draw25%

Kataka win16%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMutesa II Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maroons

Kataka

9Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Maroons	6	+2	7
17	Kataka	6	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maroons winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

60% The market58%

Us60%

~~Market~~58%

We make Maroons a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maroons v Kataka~~1.66 – 0.69

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 2~~10 v 17

~~The market · Maroons win~~58% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maroons win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maroons win	60%	58%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Kataka win	16%	17%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Maroons or draw	84%	83%	+1
Maroons clean sheet	51%	–	–
Kataka clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 10.4 6.6 2.4 1 15.5 10.9 3.7 2 12.7 8.5 3.0 3 7.1 4.7 4 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maroons down, Kataka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,203 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.2% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Maroons at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kataka away: 0.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Maroons, 0.69 for Kataka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

MAROONS

LWLLWD1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

KATAKA

DLLDLL0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	6	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	6	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	KCCA	6	0	10
7	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
8	Kitara	4	+2	8
9	UPDF	6	−1	8
10	Maroons	6	+2	7
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
14	Express	6	−2	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	6	−10	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1