Lugazi v Express prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 16:31

Lugazi 0–0 Express LUGAZI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lugazi win~~34%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lugazi win at 34%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lugazi 34% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–33–33
1′KICK-OFF Lugazi v Express
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Lugazi win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Lugazi 0–0 Express
47′HALF-TIME Lugazi 0–0 Express
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lugazi win: 34% at kick-off, 24% now
55′We said Lugazi at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–56–22
63′We said Lugazi at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
72′We said Lugazi at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Lugazi win: 34% at kick-off, 14% now
80′We said Lugazi at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
87′We said Lugazi at 34%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Lugazi win: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
92′We said Lugazi at 34% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Lugazi 1–0 Express
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Lugazi win: 34% at kick-off, 98% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Lugazi win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 96%)
FTFULL TIME Lugazi 0–0 Express
FTLugazi 0–0 Express · Lugazi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lugazi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lugazi 34%, draw 33%, Express 33%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Lugazi v ExpressBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Lugazi win34%

Draw33%

Express win33%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueLugazi FC Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lugazi

Express

8Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
14	Express	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lugazi winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

34% The market33%

Us34%

~~Market~~33%

We make Lugazi a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lugazi v Express~~0.93 – 0.91

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~11 v 14

~~The market · Lugazi win~~33% · ours 34%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lugazi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugazi win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	33%	33%	0
Express win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Both teams to score	36%	46%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	12%	19%	−7
Lugazi or draw	67%	66%	+1
Lugazi clean sheet	41%	–	–
Express clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.6%

0123450 16.6 14.1 6.6 2.0 1 14.4 13.5 6.0 2 6.9 6.1 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugazi down, Express across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lugazi at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Express away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Lugazi, 0.91 for Express. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EXP 0–0 LUG · LUG 0–0 EXP · LUG 1–0 EXP · EXP 0–1 LUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

LUGAZI

WLWLLD2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–0

EXPRESS

LWLDDL0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	6	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	6	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
14	Express	6	−2	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1