Lugazi v BUL prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Lugazi 0–0 BUL BUL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BUL win~~43%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.718

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BUL win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BUL 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 26–31–43
1′KICK-OFF Lugazi v BUL
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was BUL win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Lugazi 0–0 BUL
46′SECOND HALF Lugazi 0–0 BUL
FTFULL TIME Lugazi 0–0 BUL
FTLugazi 0–0 BUL · BUL win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

Lugazi win26%

Draw32%

BUL win43%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

VenueLugazi FC Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lugazi

BUL

6Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	4	+8	12
11	Lugazi	5	−5	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bul winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

43% The market54%

Us43%

~~Market~~54%

We make BUL a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bul win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugazi win	26%	17%	+8
Draw	32%	29%	+3
BUL win	43%	54%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Both teams to score	36%	40%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	13%	20%	−7
Lugazi or draw	57%	46%	+11
Lugazi clean sheet	33%	–	–
BUL clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.4%

0123450 15.4 16.4 9.3 3.5 1 11.5 13.0 7.1 2.7 2 4.7 5.1 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugazi down, BUL across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,195 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lugazi at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). BUL away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Lugazi, 1.12 for BUL. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BUL 0–0 LUG · LUG 2–1 BUL · BUL 4–0 LUG · LUG 1–2 BUL

Form · last six in Premier League

LUGAZI

LWLWLL0–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3

BUL

DLWWWW1–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	4	+8	12
2	NEC	5	+7	11
3	SC Villa	5	+6	11
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
6	Kitara	4	+2	8
7	Vipers	4	+6	7
8	Maroons	6	+2	7
9	Police	5	−1	7
10	KCCA	5	−2	7
11	Lugazi	5	−5	6
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	4	−4	3
16	Ntugasaze	5	−8	3
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	4	−5	1