Kitara v Ntugasaze prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Kitara are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kitara 74%, draw 18%, Ntugasaze 9%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Kitara v NtugasazeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

Kitara win74%

Draw18%

Ntugasaze win9%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kitara

Ntugasaze

4Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kitara winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Kitara a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kitara v Ntugasaze~~2.22 – 0.56

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 3~~9 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kitara win	74%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Ntugasaze win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Kitara or draw	91%	–	–
Kitara clean sheet	57%	–	–
Ntugasaze clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.6%

0123450 7.2 3.7 1 13.8 8.0 2.3 2 14.6 8.0 2.3 3 10.6 5.8 4 6.1 3.2 5 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Kitara down, Ntugasaze across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kitara at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ntugasaze away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Kitara, 0.56 for Ntugasaze. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KITARA

DDWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

NTUGASAZE

LLLLWL0–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	6	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	6	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	6	−5	7
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
14	Express	6	−2	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1