Kitara v BUL prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KitaraDrawBUL

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kitara 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kitara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kitara 49%, draw 29%, BUL 22%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Kitara v BULBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kitara win49%

Draw29%

BUL win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kitara

BUL

11Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kitara winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Kitara a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kitara v BUL~~1.34 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 19~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kitara win	49%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
BUL win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Kitara or draw	78%	–	–
Kitara clean sheet	45%	–	–
BUL clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 12.5 9.1 3.8 1 15.4 12.7 4.9 2 10.5 8.2 3.3 3 4.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kitara down, BUL across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kitara at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). BUL away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Kitara, 0.80 for BUL. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUL 1–1 KIT · KIT 1–0 BUL · BUL 1–0 KIT · KIT 1–3 BUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KITARA

DDWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

BUL

WWWDWW4–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1