Kigezi HomeBoyz v Entebbe UPPC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01

Kigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC ENTEBBE UPPC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Entebbe UPPC win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Entebbe UPPC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Entebbe UPPC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 26–34–40
1′KICK-OFF Kigezi HomeBoyz v Entebbe UPPC
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Entebbe UPPC win 38%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Entebbe UPPC win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
43′Entebbe UPPC score on 43′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Entebbe UPPC win: 40% at kick-off, 79% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Entebbe UPPC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 49%)
44′We published Entebbe UPPC at 40%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
45′We published Entebbe UPPC at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
45′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 0–1 · 4–17–80
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Entebbe UPPC win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Kigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC
46′SECOND HALF Kigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC
63′We published Entebbe UPPC at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
74′We published Entebbe UPPC at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Entebbe UPPC win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
83′We published Entebbe UPPC at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Kigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC
FTKigezi HomeBoyz 0–1 Entebbe UPPC · Entebbe UPPC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Entebbe UPPC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kigezi HomeBoyz 26%, draw 34%, Entebbe UPPC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Kigezi HomeBoyz v Entebbe UPPCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Kigezi HomeBoyz win26%

Draw34%

Entebbe UPPC win40%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueRwamwanja stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kigezi HomeBoyz

Entebbe UPPC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · entebbe uppc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Entebbe UPPC a 40% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kigezi HomeBoyz v Entebbe UPPC~~0.74 – 1.00

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 11~~18 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kigezi HomeBoyz win	26%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Entebbe UPPC win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz or draw	60%	–	–
Kigezi HomeBoyz clean sheet	38%	–	–
Entebbe UPPC clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.6%

0123450 18.6 17.0 8.7 3.0 1 12.7 12.8 6.1 2.1 2 4.9 4.7 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kigezi HomeBoyz down, Entebbe UPPC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.7% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kigezi HomeBoyz at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). Entebbe UPPC away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz, 1.00 for Entebbe UPPC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

KIGEZI HOMEBOYZ

LDLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

ENTEBBE UPPC

WWLDWD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1