KCCA v UPDF prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

KCCA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KCCA 68%, draw 22%, UPDF 11%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on KCCA v UPDFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · postponed, not graded

KCCA win68%

Draw22%

UPDF win11%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMTN Omondi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KCCA

UPDF

9Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	KCCA	6	0	10
10	UPDF	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kcca winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 04:13 · postponed, not graded

68% The market68%

Us68%

~~Market~~68%

We make KCCA a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KCCA v UPDF~~1.86 – 0.58

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~7 v 10

~~The market · KCCA win~~68% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KCCA win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KCCA win	68%	68%	0
Draw	22%	21%	+1
UPDF win	11%	11%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	37%	43%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
KCCA or draw	89%	89%	0
KCCA clean sheet	57%	–	–
UPDF clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 9.4 4.9 1 16.0 9.6 2.7 2 14.9 8.4 2.5 3 9.2 5.2 4 4.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KCCA down, UPDF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,206 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.7% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KCCA at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). UPDF away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for KCCA, 0.58 for UPDF. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UPD 1–2 KCC · KCC 4–0 UPD · UPD 1–2 KCC · KCC 0–0 UPD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KCCA

LLDWWW0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

UPDF

DLDWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	6	+11	14
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	6	−6	7
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	5	−4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1