KCCA v Lugazi prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KCCADrawLugazi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · KCCA 69%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KCCA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KCCA 69%, draw 22%, Lugazi 9%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on KCCA v LugaziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

KCCA win69%

Draw22%

Lugazi win9%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueMTN Omondi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KCCA

Lugazi

15Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	KCCA	6	0	10
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kcca winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make KCCA a 69% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KCCA v Lugazi~~1.80 – 0.47

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KCCA win	69%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Lugazi win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
KCCA or draw	91%	–	–
KCCA clean sheet	63%	–	–
Lugazi clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.3%

0123450 10.9 4.7 1 18.3 8.9 2.1 2 16.4 7.6 3 9.9 4.6 4 4.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KCCA down, Lugazi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,210 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KCCA at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lugazi away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for KCCA, 0.47 for Lugazi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LUG 0–3 KCC · KCC 0–0 LUG · KCC 5–0 LUG · LUG 1–1 KCC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KCCA

LLDWWW0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

LUGAZI

LWLLDD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	BUL	7	+11	19
2	SC Villa	7	+13	17
3	NEC	7	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	+5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	−2	12
6	Vipers	6	+11	11
7	Maroons	7	+5	10
8	KCCA	6	0	10
9	Kitara	4	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	−1	8
11	Lugazi	7	−5	8
12	Police	7	−6	8
13	Express	7	−2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	−3	5
15	URA	6	−5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	7	−13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	−8	1