Kataka v Vipers prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 16:30

Kataka 0–5 Vipers VIPERS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vipers win~~59%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.262

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vipers win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vipers 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 16–25–59
1′KICK-OFF Kataka v Vipers
17′A goal for Vipers on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–12–84
17′We said Vipers at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 4–12–84
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Kataka 0–1 Vipers
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Vipers win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
23′Vipers score on 22′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–97
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Kataka 0–2 Vipers
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Vipers win: 59% at kick-off, 97% now
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Vipers
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Vipers win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
29′We said Vipers at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 3–12–85
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 3–12–85
45′HALF-TIME Kataka 0–1 Vipers
46′SECOND HALF Kataka 0–1 Vipers
52′We said Vipers at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
52′Vipers score on 52′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kataka 0–2 Vipers
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Vipers win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
57′Vipers find the net on 56′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
57′We said Vipers at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Kataka 0–3 Vipers
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Vipers win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
64′Vipers ahead on 55′ through A. Usama. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′A goal for Vipers on 76′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Kataka 0–4 Vipers
77′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′Vipers score on 90′ to make it 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Kataka 0–5 Vipers
94′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kataka 0–5 Vipers
FTKataka 0–5 Vipers · Vipers win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vipers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kataka 16%, draw 25%, Vipers 59%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Kataka v VipersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Kataka win16%

Draw25%

Vipers win59%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueBCS Sports complex Bukedea

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kataka

Vipers

5Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vipers	4	+6	7
17	Kataka	5	−5	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vipers winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:02 · locked at kick-off

59% The market65%

Us59%

~~Market~~65%

We make Vipers a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kataka v Vipers~~0.67 – 1.60

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~17 v 8

~~The market · Vipers win~~65% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vipers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kataka win	16%	13%	+3
Draw	25%	22%	+4
Vipers win	59%	65%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−12
Both teams to score	38%	46%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	20%	31%	−12
Kataka or draw	41%	35%	+7
Kataka clean sheet	21%	–	–
Vipers clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.1%

0123450 11.1 16.1 12.8 7.0 3.0 1 7.0 11.0 8.3 4.4 2 2.5 3.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kataka down, Vipers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.3% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kataka at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 3). Vipers away: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.67 goals for Kataka, 1.60 for Vipers. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

KATAKA

DLLDL0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

VIPERS

LWWD0–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SC Villa	6	+11	14
2	NEC	6	+9	14
3	BUL	5	+8	13
4	Entebbe UPPC	5	+4	10
5	KCCA	6	0	10
6	Blacks Power	6	−3	9
7	Kitara	4	+2	8
8	Vipers	4	+6	7
9	Maroons	6	+2	7
10	Lugazi	6	−5	7
11	Police	6	−6	7
12	UPDF	4	0	5
13	Express	5	−1	5
14	Mbarara City	5	−1	5
15	URA	4	−4	3
16	Ntugasaze	6	−10	3
17	Kataka	5	−5	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	−7	1